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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-09-10T16:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-10T16:00Z
CME Note: Associated with X8.2 flare from AR 12673. Arrival at of CME-associated disturbance DSCOVR has no clear flux-rope signature, shock only.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-12T19:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -50
Dst min. time: 2017-09-13T01:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-13T02:34Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

% Compiled module: EAM_V2.

CME speed from CACTUS:
10/09/2017 16:12 UT
min V =  104
max V = 2013

Most pr. speed:
V  = 850
dV = 250

Duration in seconds:        210121.79
Duration in days:        2.4319652

Acceleration of the CME:  -1.95 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  504.6 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 13/09/2017 Time: 02:34 UT

Lead Time: 31.85 hour(s)
Difference: -7.13 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2017-09-11T11:35Z

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